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Beyond the Podcast: The Real Reasons Edward Onoja Wasn’t Kogi’s APC Candidate
By GOM-V’s President
The recent podcast by Chief Edward Onoja, former Deputy Governor and Chief of Staff to the immediate past Governor of Kogi State, Yahaya Bello (GYB), has sparked considerable debate. Chief Onoja’s revelations, particularly the suggestion that he was once teased as a potential successor, offer a compelling glimpse into the internal dynamics of the state’s politics. His evident disappointment at not securing the governorship ticket is understandable from a personal standpoint. However, a dispassionate analysis of Kogi’s political landscape reveals that the decision was likely rooted in strategic electoral calculus rather than a subjective assessment of his capabilities.
Chief Onoja stated that his principal was the one who initially positioned him as a future successor, indicating a significant level of trust. The subsequent shift in this position is what he finds difficult to reconcile with. This prompts a critical question: what would the outcome have been if the former Governor had attempted to impose Chief Onoja, an indigene of Kogi East, as his successor?
As a commentator from Kogi Central, I was among those who consistently argued through writings and analyses during the 2023 election cycle that Governor Bello could not successfully hand over power to a candidate from Kogi East. This position was not born of animosity but of pragmatic political reality, and the eventual election results validated this assertion.
The reasoning was twofold:
- The Imperative of Kogi Central’s Support: Following an eight-year tenure by GYB from Kogi Central, the natural expectation within the senatorial district was to consolidate the gains of leadership and support one of their own to continue their developmental agenda. Governor Bello would have faced immense difficulty convincing stakeholders and the entire Ebira populace to rally behind a candidate from Kogi East, making it nearly impossible to secure the bloc votes necessary for victory from his own base.
- The Stance of Kogi West: Similarly, it would have been a hard sell to the people of Kogi West. Having patiently supported a candidate from Kogi Central, their logical expectation is to lobby for Central’s support in a future election. Voting for another Easterner immediately after would have been perceived as a postponement of their own political aspirations. Historically, the political narrative from Kogi East has often emphasized a right to power based on population majority, a stance interpreted by others as a desire for perpetual control. This created a natural alliance of interest between Kogi Central and West, who together form an electoral majority.
This analysis was proven correct in the last gubernatorial election. The candidate of the Social Democratic Party (SDP), Muri Ajaka, despite a strong performance, could not secure the requisite support outside of Kogi East to win. A similar outcome would have befallen an APC ticket headed by an Eastern candidate, likely costing the party the election.
The notion that Chief Onoja’s capacity was a primary factor in the decision is, in my view, untenable. The more plausible explanation is that the political climate was fundamentally opposed to a succession plan that favored Kogi East. Governor Bello, as a shrewd politician, understood the potential backlash: the erosion of his respect within Ebiraland and a breach of trust with Kogi West. He strategically followed public opinion, a move any pragmatic leader would make to preserve his political capital and ensure his party’s victory. This was not a betrayal but a necessary alignment with the prevailing political realities.
Looking forward, the lesson for Kogi State is clear. Sustainable governance is practically impossible without a consensual framework for power rotation among its three senatorial zones. While Kogi West may rightly anticipate its turn after Kogi Central, the future challenge will be integrating Kogi East into this rotational model through negotiation rather than force. A system where major political parties mutually agree to feature candidates from a designated zone is the most viable path to fostering lasting trust and equity.
Finally, the fringe theory that President Tinubu would impose Honourable Falake Abiodun to thwart Governor Ododo’s re-election is not only ignorant but divorced from the President’s established reputation as a national leader. It is a narrative pushed by those who never supported Governor Ododo’s emergence in the first place. The focus should remain on building a Kogi where power is exercised responsibly and rotated equitably by consensus.
Ada’ava Abdallah President, Governor Ododo Media Volunteers, Abuja.
